In an alternate universe, Donovan Edwards hits the gap without losing his footing. The Don rips off yet another massive touchdown run against the Huskies and Michigan heads into the bye week 5-1 with a renewed set of confidence in the Jack Tuttle offense.
In this universe, it doesn’t happen. Donovan joins the Jyaire Hill slip-n-slide party, Jack Tuttle turns the ball over twice, and Wink Martindale continues lining up his All-American corner ten yards off the Washington receivers.
—
Michigan has exhausted any and all room for error.
This is not a good sign for a team prone to make them.
My analysis in the preseason was that Michigan could afford two losses with its brutal schedule; likely a 2-2 split against Texas, USC, Oregon, and Ohio State. This seemed difficult, but doable. It did not account for dropping a game against a very average Washington team.
Without a mulligan in its pocket, Michigan is almost certainly not a playoff team. At current levels of execution, Oregon won’t even need twelve men on the field to beat the brakes off them, and Ryan Day might finally hang 100 on them (albeit nearly five years and zero wins since that promise).
It gets worse! The games the preseason analysis also failed to account for (but you’ll have to forgive me because . . . c’mon) include road games against fringe Top 15 Indiana and fringe Top 20 Illinois. Because that’s the world we’re living in.
I do not know what to make out of Illinois. Illinois has beaten exactly one (1) team with a winning record. That was Nebraska – and it took overtime to do it. No matter, you might say, because of The Dylan Raiola Factor and whatnot. Then may I remind you that they nearly lost to 1-5 Kansas at home. AND – as recently as last week – took 1-5 Purdue to overtime at home. That’s right. They were one wild finish field goal away from losing to Purdue.
Therefore: I would like to firmly believe that Michigan remains in a separate football tier from Illinois. The Illini have not beaten Michigan since the Juice Williams era. Illinois is a basketball school. A gymnastics school. A spending-time-in-the-library school. They ARE actually here to play school.
But wanting to believe something is not the same as it being true. I want to believe my children will wake up softly and quietly at 8:30 and allow my wife and I to rest. They will not. They will arise at 6:15 with all the gentleness of an F4 tornado. I do not wish this to be the case. But it is the case, nonetheless.
I remain uncertain whether Michigan and Illinois are comparable programs in 2024. Saturday will provide a clear answer. It will do so well beyond the ramifications for just one game; it also will determine how much pain the remainder of Michigan’s schedule holds. A convincing win at Illinois and Michigan can likely hang their hat on an 8-4 season, chalk it up to lost talent, and move on. A loss and Michigan is in a very spooky battle for bowl eligibility.
Kindly asking spooky season to be a little less spooky.
MICHIGAN 24
ILLINOIS 20
