The Michigan Wolverines have lost to the Indiana Hoosiers just twice since 1968. One of those years was 2020 – the flukiest of fluke seasons thanks to a global pandemic.
Saturday’s contest in Bloomington will not be a fluke.
Indiana enters the game at 9-0. They have already tied the most wins in program history and will almost certainly break that record. They have a Heisman-candidate at quarterback in Kurtis Rourke, the third-highest scoring offense in the nation, and are a viable threat to make the Big Ten Championship and the College Football Playoff.
Michigan is 5-4. They have already lost more games this season than in the last three seasons combined (41-3). They have played three quarterbacks, have one of the worst scoring offenses in the nation, and are a viable threat to make the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
The Wolverines and Hoosiers have swapped their typical places.
It’s like Freaky Friday. And it’s absolutely terrifying.
The knock on Indiana has been that they haven’t played anybody. This is the only conceivable reason that the College Football Playoff Committee chose to rank them #8 in the initial rankings. I would buy this as a reasonable argument, except that they ranked Miami (FL) at #4. The Hurricanes – you may remember – were given a bewildering gift that allowed them to escape Virginia Tech (!), then received another to help them escape Cal (!).
Okay, so it’s not really about strength of schedule. So what is it?
Consider me a subscriber to Joel Klatt’s theory:
“If they had ANY other logo on the side of their helmet, they’d be ranked a lot higher.”
Bingo. Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, it’s going to take an upset in Columbus for the national media to take them seriously. But fortunately, I don’t think they care. They’re guided by Curt Cignetti, a man not lacking in confidence (“I win. Google me.”) and with good reason. The team doesn’t need a single entity outside of their locker room to take them seriously. They come into every single game with the confidence of their head coach with both nothing to prove and everything to prove at the exact same time.
Enter Michigan. A team whose offensive coordinator decided a wide receiver pass to the non-throwing quarterback with the game on the line was a genius call. Whose defensive coordinator said that he sees missed tackles “differently” – whatever that means. Whose head coach burned a timeout because doesn’t understand what “the process of the catch” means and refused to hold his coordinators responsible for their mistakes.
There’s a talent gap in 2024 between these teams, sure.
But the coaching gap is far more pronounced and far more palpable.
While Indiana’s staff continues pushing a talented roster to play above their talent level, Michigan’s staff repeatedly drags down a depleted roster. For Michigan to win this game, not only do the players have to execute at their best, but the coaches do as well.
The Oregon game showed me that the players haven’t thrown in the towel; that they are finding some rhythm; that they are capable of playing beyond the limited skillset we’ve seen against teams with far more talent.
Unfortunately, that game also showed me that it didn’t matter. There comes a point where your players are doing everything asked of them and it doesn’t matter. And it doesn’t matter because the ones asking them to do things are asking them to do things like “drop Kenneth Grant in coverage” or “line Mason Graham up on the edge” or “throw a 4th down pass back across the field to our running quarterback so that he runs into a camera crane.”
If Michigan wins, it’ll be because of the players and despite the coaching.
But I just don’t see it.
INDIANA 38
MICHIGAN 20
